After the coldest January in 13 years brought bitterly cold record-setting temps to NYC, the arrival of spring felt long overdue–but so far it’s been quite cooler than we would typically hope for and so windy we honestly feel like we’re going to take flight every time we step out the door. So with how unpredictable Mother Nature has been acting lately, we can’t help but wonder what summer has in store for us. Lucky for us, the National Weather Service and The Old Farmer’s Almanac are stepping in to give us some answers.
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center recently released their latest seasonal temperature outlook which includes forecasted summer temperatures and precipitation amounts and how they compare to their historical averages. According to the report, June, July, and August are on track to be warmer and rainier than usual–and if it’s anything like that time where we went seven weekends in a row with rain, we’ll certainly have some words for Mother Nature.
Between May 2025 and August 2025, nearly all of New York State is looking at above normal temperatures–a map released by the National Weather Service shows a 50-60% chance of temperatures measuring above the historical average.
To put this into perspective, 1991-2020 data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows that the mean average temperatures for Central Park in June, July, and August are 72ºF, 77.5ºF, and 76.1ºF, respectively, so we’re looking at temperatures higher than those. Thankfully none of these average temperatures are in the 80s or 90s, because we already know what the subways would feel like in that case.
As for the seasonal precipitation outlook, between May 2025 and August 2025, all of New York State is leaning above average rainfall amounts–most of New York State shows a 33-40% chance of rainfall amounts measuring above the historical average while NYC lies in the 40-50% range, according to a map released by the National Weather Service.
June, July, and August are typically the wettest months of the year in NYC, with 1991-2020 data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration showing rainfall averages of 4.54 inches, 4.60 inches, and 4.56 inches in June, July, and August, respectively. And yeah, we may not always want a rainy day, but at least there are tons of fabulous things to do around NYC if the skies do open up.
As for The Old Farmer’s Almanac, they agree…to an extent. The Almanac’s Summer Weather Forecast 2025 says this summer is “shaping up to be a doozy.”
Temperature-wise The Almanac is on the NWS’ side, predicting a gradual buildup to record-breaking heat with June temperatures clocking in at near normal in most regions before July and August bring above-normal temperatures across most regions. Given recent trends, “we wouldn’t be surprised to see record-breaking heat,” they said.
Last summer (2024), we endured one of the hottest summers of our lifetime and Earth’s hottest summer since global records began in 1880. And unfortunately this summer is shaping up to be just as intense.
Precipitation-wise, however, The Almanac has some differing opinions. They predict that rainfall across most of the country will range from near to slightly below normal, including in New York where they’re predicting “hot and dry” conditions.
Looks like we’ll have to wait and see to find out for sure what type of weather this summer will actually bring. As for when that is, the first day of summer, or summer solstice, is on Saturday, June 20th, 2025 at 5:43 pm EDT. In the meantime, keep this resource of where to find all of NYC’s cooling centers in your back pocket.