We wish it weren’t the case, but unfortunately it seems as if wildfires have been blazing through communities way more often than usual–back in March, four Long Island wildfires broke out on the eastern portion of the island near the Hamptons, multiple wildfires ravaged Los Angeles this past January, and wildfires overtook parts of New Jersey back in November 2024 and are currently doing so once again.
In May of 2024, climate experts reported that hazy NYC skies due to Canadian wildfire smoke would likely become the new norm–we all remember how insane NYC looked that one summer, what with the multiple air quality alerts and being urged to make air quality awareness a priority–and experts are now predicting that wildfire season will be above-average this year, scorching more land across America compared to the historical average.
AccuWeather meteorologists are predicting 7 million to 9 million acres of land to burn across the United States in 2025, which is more than the historical average. Experts stated:
In the wake of unprecedented and devastating wildfires that caused an estimated $250 billion to $275 billion in total damage and economic loss across Southern California in January, AccuWeather long-range experts are predicting wildfires to burn more land across the United States this year, compared to the historical average.
Already this year, fires have been reported across 20 different states and have already burned nearly 1 million acres of land. To compare, nearly 9 million acres burned in fires across the United States last year. AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok stated:
The firestorm that ripped through Southern California in early January caused catastrophic damage and heartbreaking loss. Families and businesses need to prepare for yet another active year of wildfires in America.
But what’s causing these catastrophic fires? Well, it’s us. AccuWeather writes that while heat, drought, wind, lightning, and other weather conditions can spark or spread fires, “roughly 90% of all wildfires in the US are caused by humans, including sparks from downed power lines, discarded cigarettes, campfires, fireworks, lawn equipment, trains, and vehicle backfires.”
2025 Wildfire Outlook
Spring 2025 Wildfire Risk
While wildfire season in the U.S. typically peaks later in summer and through autumn, springtime fires can pose a unique danger, especially in areas facing drought–NYC did declare its first drought warning in over two decades last November. According to AccuWeather, NYC’s wildfire risk ranges from moderate to high, while the southern Plains and part of the interior Southwest are facing very high to extreme wildfire risks this spring amid worsening drought conditions.
Pastelok added that roughly half of the country is dealing with abnormally dry or drought conditions right now, and “nearly nine percent of the nation is in an extreme or exceptional drought, significantly higher than at this time last year.” These dry, windy, and low-humidity days can lead to an increased number of high-risk wildfire days.
The risk of fires along the East Coast the rest of spring extends as far south as parts of southern Florida.
Summer 2025 Wildfire Risk
As we move into the summer, shifting weather conditions will prime the environment for a surge in wildfire activity, especially across much of the Northwest, northern Rockies, Southwest, and South Central states, according to AccuWeather. Pastelok stated:
While the season may start slowly, there is strong potential for rapid escalation as drought conditions and heat set in. This is the time of year when grasses, brush and other vegetation really start to dry out as trigger mechanisms kick in, like lightning and wind.
While fire risk is low in New York over the summer, it’s expected to focus on areas east of the Cascades through the northern Rockies, likely due to lightning from moisture-starved thunderstorms. The risk for fires will only rise throughout the season as vegetation dries out amid summertime heat and sunshine.
Thunderstorms can also cause issues to rise across California, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico as the annual monsoon builds. While rain from the monsoon helps lower fire risk over time, lightning from monsoon storms can ignite fires in the early season when the landscape is dry.
Fall 2025 Wildfire Risk
AccuWeather experts predict that more than 30 states across America will face a “moderate,” “high,” or “very high” risk of fires this fall. New York’s fire risk will once again lie at “moderate,” while the “very high” risk of fires is concentrated across parts of Central and Northern California, much of southern, central and eastern Oregon, and western Idaho.
Further details regarding the fall wildfire forecast will be released in July.
How wildfire smokes affects you
Wildfire smoke has impacted the physical and mental health of millions of Americans over the past five years, as it “contains many toxins and hazardous materials, including carbon monoxide, particulate matter, volatile organic compounds and other harmful chemicals and gases.” This can all lead to respiratory, cardiovascular and other serious health issues.
And even if you’re not in the line of fire, wind has been shown to blow wildfire smoke more than 2,000 miles away. As a result, Pastelok has stated that people across “Canada, the Great Lakes, and the northern United States should be prepared for the possibility of hazy skies and impacts from wildfire smoke again this year.”
How to protect yourself from wildfire smoke
Glenn McGillivray, managing director at the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, recommends people use their air conditioners or air filters if hazy conditions are present in NYC. He also suggests limiting your time spent outside when air quality alerts are in effect.
The avoid risks brought on by unhealthy air quality, NY State suggests:
- Vulnerable groups should avoid exertion outdoors and watch for symptoms when exposed to the outdoors when AQI is greater than 100
- When AQI is greater than 150, all New Yorkers should avoid strenuous outdoor activities, and those in vulnerable groups should avoid exposure to the outdoors
- Those who spend time outdoors when air quality is unhealthy should wear a well-fitting face mask such as an N95 or KN95
Here’s more on how to stay safe amid hazardous air conditions in NYC.