Another brutal summer–one that’s unfortunately going to be hotter and rainier than usual–is once again on its way to make us New Yorkers sweat through our clothes on our morning commutes. And with the summer season comes not only endless perspiration, but hurricane season. And according to the The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, we should expect an above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
The NOAA’s 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast for this year, which begins June 1st and lasts through November 30th, predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal season–that’s at least 25% better than last year. There’s only a 30% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
The agency is forecasting the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season to bring with it a range of 13 to 19 total named storms, or storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes, with winds of 74 mph or higher, including 3-5 major hurricanes–meaning category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher. To compare, data shows that there were at least 11 hurricanes and 18 named storms during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
By using the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems, NOAA has a 70% confidence in this data. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated, “With these models and forecasting tools, we have never been more prepared for hurricane season.”
NOAA has found that the reason this hurricane season is expected to be above-normal is due to a “confluence of factors, including continued ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer than average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear, and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes.”
The potential for a northward shift of the West African monsoon is also possible this hurricane season, which would produce tropical waves that seed some of the strongest and most long-lived Atlantic storms. NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham stated:
In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we’ve never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather. This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens.
As for when we may see the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season’s first storm, Andrea, experts at The Weather Channel say some long-range computer models suggest the tropical Atlantic Basin may come under the influence of rising air and lower wind shear from something called the Madden-Julian Oscillation, an environment supportive of thunderstorms which are the building blocks of tropical storms. Thus, the first hurricane of the season can form by the middle of June.
Improved hurricane analysis & forecasts in store for Atlantic hurricane season 2025:
In order to ensure residents are prepared for potential hurricanes heading their way, NOAA will improve its forecast communications, decision support, and storm recovery efforts this season. This includes the following:
- NOAA’s Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System will undergo an upgrade expected to result in a 5% improvement of tracking and intensity forecasts, helping forecasters provide more accurate watches and warnings
- NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Central Pacific Hurricane Center will be able to issue tropical cyclone advisory products up to 72 hours before the arrival of storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds on land, giving communities more time to prepare
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s Global Tropical Hazards Outlook, which provides advance notice of potential tropical cyclone risks, has been extended from two weeks to three weeks, providing additional time for preparation and response
How to prepare for hurricane season:
- Identify your hurricane evacuation zone
- Have an evacuation and emergency plan–such as where you’ll go and what you’ll do–and and share it with loved ones
- Put together a basic emergency kit that includes water and shelf stable foods to last up to a week, flash lights, back up batteries, and a first aid kit
- Review your insurance policies to make sure you have adequate coverage if necessary
- Store important documents, such as insurance policies and other important papers, in a safe place
- Familiarize yourself with NYC’s hurricane preparedness document
NYC’s “Know Your Zone” campaign also encourages New Yorkers to know their zone and be prepared to evacuate during a hurricane if needed. You can learn more about this by visiting their website or calling 311.