We’re not trying to rush summer away, but after a wild season of back-to-back scorching heat waves, Canadian wildfire smoke skyrocketing air quality beyond unhealthy levels, and rainfall severe enough to put NYC under tornado watch, we can’t help but wonder–or worry–what autumn has in store for us.
Well, the Old Farmer’s Almanac and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have officially dropped their fall 2026 weather predictions, and for New York City? Things are looking…well, it completely depends who you ask.
Prediction 1: The Old Farmer’s Almanac Predicts a Crisp, Chilly Fall
According to the Old Farmer’s Almanac, it won’t feel like fall everywhere. But pumpkin spice latte lovers here in the Big Apple are in for a real treat.
Their long-range forecast calls for a cooler and drier autumn than usual for the Atlantic Corridor (that’s us!):
- Temperatures: Forecasted to hover roughly 1°F below normal
- Precipitation: Expected to bring about 1 inch less rainfall than average
For context on what “normal” looks like in NYC:
- September: Averages range from 61° to 76° with ~4.2 inches of rainfall
- October: Averages range from 51° to 65° with ~4 to 4.4 inches of rainfall
- November: Averages range from 41° to 54° with ~3.5 to 4 inches of rainfall
Prediction 2: NOAA Expects a Warmer-Than-Average Autumn
Plot twist: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is signaling the exact opposite.
Instead of hyper-specific weather predictions, NOAA uses probabilistic modeling to compare seasonal trends against 30-year climate averages. Here’s what they predict for NYC this fall:
- Temperatures: Long-range models favor warmer-than-average temperatures along the Northeast coast, continuing a multi-year regional trend
- Precipitation: Neutral. NOAA isn’t seeing a strong, deterministic signal favoring an unusually wet or dry autumn, leaning toward standard seasonal averages
The wildcard: NOAA is tracking a developing El Niño pattern heading into late 2026. El Niño weakens eastern trade winds, pushing warm Pacific waters eastward and altering the global jet stream. For NYC, this often means milder temperatures lasting well into October and November.
The Bottom Line
So, who’s right? Will we be pulling out the heavy coats in September or clinging to tank tops until November?
Given how notoriously unpredictable NYC autumns are, the safest bet is keeping your favorite hoodie and an umbrella near the front door. We’ll find out soon enough whose models got it right.