We may be short on palm trees, but Manhattan’s still an island, and according to the Köppen climate classification, it even counts as humid subtropical these days.
The reclassification of NYC from a coastal temperate climate zone to a humid subtropical climate zone was distinguished back in 2020 by the U.S. National Climate Assessment, but with June’s heat wave, we’re really feeling it!
Humid subtropical climates are defined with average summers above 72°F and average winters above 27°F. For the last decade, NYC has continued to meet those requirements. This past winter, NYC saw an average temperature between January 2025 through March 2025 of 37.7°F. As for summer 2024, NYC saw an average temperature of 76.6°F from June 2024 through August 2024.
Much of southeastern Brazil like São Paulo, most of Japan, including Tokyo, and southeastern U.S. cities like New Orleans are among other places in the humid subtropical climate zone.
According to the New York State Climate Impact Assessment, NYC hasn’t seen the end of rising temperatures. By the 2050s “temperatures in New York City are projected to increase between 4°F and 6°F…and between 5.6°F and 9.8°F by the 2080s compared with the 1981–2010 average.” NYC’s climate projections make up some of the largest increases for extreme heat in the entire state.
Curious why temperatures feel even hotter in NYC than in other places? This is because NYC deals with the urban heat island effect. With this phenomenon, daytime temperatures in urban areas can feel anywhere from 1-7°F hotter than rural areas. All of the city’s buildings, concrete and other surfaces easily absorb and retain heat, re-emiting the sun’s heat onto city goers.
New Yorkers can expect this week’s heat wave to bring in temperatures wavering around 100°F from Monday through Wednesday. If Tuesday does in fact hit 101°F as it’s forecasted to, it will shatter the 1888 record high for June 24th that is currently sitting at 96°F.
To really convey just how hot NYC will be this week, temperatures will surpass those of Nouakchott-Nord, Mauritania, a region in the Sahara.
Come Friday, temperatures are expected to drop down to the 70s, with showers in the forecast for most of this weekend and the beginning of next week.