You probably just pulled out your fall sweaters and yet, we’re already dreading the first frost in NYC! Especially, since New York State just saw its first snowfall on Monday, October 14th.
Though some New Yorkers may see cooler temperatures on the horizon as sweet relief from this summer’s boiling heat, we’re trying to hold on as long as possible to pleasant weather before the city turns into a world of sludge and slush this winter.
So whether you dread winter like us or thrive in the cold, here’s when you can expect to bundle up for the season’s first frost.
When can NYC expect its first frost?
According to the Farmer’s Almanac, NYC is forecasted to receive its first frost on November 14, 2024. That means we only have one more month before the winter creeps in!
However, it was a close call last night as some parts of the tri-state area was under a frost advisory due to lowering temperatures.
What’s considered frost?
It’s important to note that frost is different than snow. Frost can be expected anytime the temperature is at freezing, so 32°F (0°C). However, the Farmer’s Almanac explains that a frost can sometimes occur with temperatures above freezing, depending on radiative cooling. Radiative cooling can happen when surfaces are exposed to a clear night’s sky.
There are three different types of frost. They are as follows:
Light freeze
A light freeze occurs when temperatures are between 29°F and 32°F. At these temperatures, tender plants tend to die, with little harm to other vegetation.
Moderate freeze
A moderate freeze occurs when temperatures are between 25°F and 28°F. These temperatures damage most vegetation, especially fruit blossoms and tender and semi-hardy plants.
Severe freeze:
A severe freeze occurs when temperatures are between 24°F and below. Most plants are damaged under these conditions.
As for when you can expect NYC’s first snow, that’s entirely different.
What’s the probability of the first frost to occur earlier than expected?
There’s less than a 30% chance that the first frost in NYC occurs earlier than the projected November 14th date. The frost estimates are not a guarantee, but a prediction based off of historical data.