After weeks of New Yorkers dressing in seven layers of clothing just to stave off frost bite, all eyes turned Monday morning to the city’s fluffiest meteorologist. Staten Island Chuck emerged from his burrow at the annual Groundhog Day ceremony…and delivered the exact news nobody wanted.
He saw his shadow.
According to the legend, that means six more weeks of winter. And as if that wasn’t cruel enough, Punxsutawney Phil popped out in Pennsylvania and backed him up. For once, the rival rodents are in total agreement: winter isn’t done with us yet.
The Staten Island Zoo ceremony went on as planned on Monday, February 2, 2026, despite the bitter cold. After a dramatic countdown, Chuck stepped out, looked around, spotted his shadow, and sealed our collective fate. The crowd responded the only way New Yorkers know how–with a chorus of boos.
Chuck and Phil aligning is pretty actually rare. Aside from both predicting an early spring in 2024, the famous forecasters haven’t agreed since 2020. Of course, this is the one year we wouldn’t have minded a disagreement.
Before we completely spiral, though, it’s worth noting that groundhog forecasting is…not exactly science.
Phil’s long-term accuracy hovers around 35-40%, depending on who you ask. Chuck, however, has built a reputation as the overachiever of the rodent weather world, with reports giving him accuracy closer to 80%. Honestly? That tracks for New York.
There is one rebel prediction in the mix, though.
Dunkirk Dave–a lesser-known but long-running prognosticating groundhog in Western New York–did not see his shadow this morning, calling for an early spring. Dave has been predicting from the ground (literally) for over 50 years, and his handlers insist that makes his method more accurate than the dramatic hold-him-up tradition. Dunkirk Dave’s handler, Bob Will, said:
The call today for early spring weather, everybody likes that. The groundhog is very happy. This is the only place where they predict from the ground. That’s where you get a more accurate prediction than Punxsutawney, where they hold Phil up in the air. It’s quite a record that we have. We are the only place where we have predicted from the ground for over 50 years.
So while Chuck and Phil are preparing us for extended radiator season, Dave is offering a glimmer of hope.
Groundhog drama aside, astronomical winter officially ends at the spring equinox on March 20 at 10:46 am EST–whether the weather actually listens is another story. Early 2026 spring forecasts for New York are already hinting at a classic seasonal tug-of-war, which to us just sounds like “don’t pack away your puffer yet.”
In the meantime, New Yorkers will continue doing what we do best: complaining about the cold while bragging about how we survived it.